Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Swimming Snakebot

Swimming Snakebot

TechEBlog just released their list of the 10 coolest robots. The one in the video below really caught my eye.


(ACM-R5 website)

I am plenty partial to these serpentine-type robots; I spent a good portion of my life (as in a third)developing autonomous robots very similar to the radio-controlled one in the video above. The video shows the robot slithering around sinusoidally a little bit on a flat surface and then swimming like a snake does, but this class of robots is capable of a lot of other types of movement: from the anchor/bend/anchor/extend movement of an inchworm, to the coil/spring movement of a striking cobra, to the vertical climb of a boa constrictor, the sideways motion of a sidewinder, or even the "hand over hand" movement of the Canadarm II on the international space station. All these modes of motion mean that a serpentine robot can handle a very wide variety of terrains, far more than a wheeled or even legged robot can, from big rocks and steep crater walls to a truss in a weightless environment to underwater.

Serpentine robots have other advantages besides their many modes of motion. The joints can be sealed off from their operating environment (as is the case with the robot in the video), thus keeping dust and other debris from interfering with the mechanical motion. They have robust failure modes: complete failure of one or even several joints merely leads to slightly stiffer movement - by comparison, a wheeled robot that loses the operation of a wheel faces huge difficulty in movement. The snakebot body segments are identical, so they can be mass-produced on an assembly line. And, such robots can fit into much smaller spaces than other types of robots.

These advantages and versatility mean that serpentine robots can be used for a wide variety of missions, from search operations in collapsed buildings or mines, to exploration of other planets, to work outside a space station. Indeed, serpentine robots have been used in space for decades, in the form of the Canadarm in each space shuttle; any serpentine robot that has one end in a fixed position is simply a robotic arm.

The robots that I designed had something the robot in the video does not: grippers at each end. These grippers could grab and use specially-designed tools to carry out a wide variety of functions, such as welding or drilling or sampling or spectroscopy or damn near anything. The grippers I came up with are also capable of grabbing onto each other, so that two or more snakebots could connect to each other end-to-end to form one long serpentine robot, capable of climbing out of even very deep craters. (These grippers are illustrated on the lunar robot in my video.)

Because these robots are so flexible, they can be coiled up, so lots of them could be packed together in a small volume; a dozen or more robots the size of the one in the video could be packed into the same lander that carried just one Mars Exploration Rover. With that kind of redundancy, it doesn't matter if one or several of the robots sent on a mission are destroyed.

All of this makes snakebots a wonderful choice for future space missions. I'd love to see a mission to an asteroid carrying a dozen snakebots, all working together to explore and begin setting up industrial operations.

Finally, the serpentine design is scalable down to the nanotech scale. The same swimming motion that is demonstrated in the video above would also work for a nanorobot a few thousand atoms long, swimming along in the bloodstream. Try doing that with a wheeled robot!

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Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Crossing Over

Crossing Over

What is up with the recent spate of cartoonists drawing characters from other strips? I think it has something to do with the huge cartoon crossover for Blondie's 75th anniversary (ably documented by Captains Blog, where everyone and his dog was contributing:


And of course, Pearls Before Swine has long mocked other cartoonists. This past week has been crazy though, with Pearls bringing in characters from both Baby Blues and Zits for a crossover:


And then when Boondocks creator Aaron McGruder decided to take a six-month break to recharge his batteries, it was almost like open season on his characters. Check out yesterday's Foxtrot:


And even internet comics are getting in on the boondockarama; check out Monday's Rockwood comic:


When will this madness end? ... hopefully, not soon, because I think it's funny.

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Monday, March 27, 2006

what kind of wine do you serve with that?

what kind of wine do you serve with that?

Scientists at the University of Pittsburgh have combined the genes of C. Elegans with pigs to make pigs that produce omega-3 fatty acids, which are normally found in fish like salmon or tuna. Dr. Moreau would be so proud.

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Saturday, March 25, 2006

video of Falcon launch

video of Falcon launch

Mike Taht of Postcards from the Bleeding Edge mirrored the video of the Falcon launch; I then uploaded it to YouTube. The video of the launch opens in the the player below.

About 30-33 seconds into the video (19-22 seconds after launch) you can see the thermal blanket fluttering wildly; about 3 seconds later you can see a jet of flame shooting sideways out of the rocket to the right.

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fifth sentence on page 161

fifth sentence on page 161

Apparently theres another meme-tag game going around. I didn't get tagged, but it looked like fun so I thought I'd go ahead and do it too. The instructions are:
1. Grab the nearest book.
2. Open it to page 161.
3. Find the fifth sentence.
4. Post the text of the sentence in your journal along with these instructions.
5. Don’t search around and look for the coolest book you can find. Do what’s actually next to you.
Well, the nearest book is one I happen to be reviewing, Return to the Moon (yes I'm really going to start reviewing it essay by essay again soon).

Turning to page 161, I find the start of an essay by Dennis Wingo, as well as an introduction to the essay by Rick Tumlinson (or is it by Erin Medlicott?). In the interests of completeness, I give you both the fifth sentence of the introduction and the fifth sentence of the essay. From the introduction:
But given recent initiatives to begin the development of a hydrogen based economy, the need for platinum, which is central to the workings of hydrogen engines, has provided yet another rationale, one which might trump all the rest in its potential value.
...and from the essay
While the emphasis by many has been on the potential for water in the permanently unlit craters at the lunar poles, that water will be best used to support the exploration and development of the metallic resources of the Moon.
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monster sudoku (060325)

monster sudoku (060325)

Well, I'm back to regular blogging, and it is Saturday, so once again it is time for another monster 16 x 16 sudoku. Sorry for missing last week.

The rules of Monster Sudoku: The puzzle board consists of a 16 by 16 grid, which is further divided up into sixteen 4 by 4 blocks. In each row, column, and 4x4 block, the letters A through P each get written exactly once. There is only one solution. If the letters are a little too small for you, click on the image to bring up a large version. For those who need help, a short tutorial on how to solve sudoku puzzles can be found here.

To solve this puzzle, I suggest first saving the GIF on your computer. Then print it out (or copy it out on graph paper) and solve it in pencil (or in pen if you're feeling bold). If you don't feel like using paper, then solve it using a graphics editor such as Microsoft Paint.

If you solve this puzzle, post your solution in the comments. The first person who posts the correct solution wins a prize: a permalink on my blogroll and a graphic declaring him or her to be the Monster Sudoku Champion, which can be displayed on their own blog. I will post the solution next Saturday if nobody else gets it by then.

If you want to play the regular 9 x 9 sudoku puzzle, just scroll down; there is a sudoku puzzle just before the cartoons, which you can play right on this blog.

Update: the solution is posted here.

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Friday, March 24, 2006

not a success, but...

not a success, but...

I see a lot of science news sites, space news sites, and space bloggers calling the inaugural SpaceX launch a failure. And sure, the rocket didn't deliver its payload to orbit.

However, I would not call today's launch a complete failure. First of all, nobody was injured or killed. Secondly, they made it all the way through their launch checklist. Third, they got the rocket to clear the tower and operate under its own guidance and thrust (using only the second new liquid-fuelled engine developed in the US since the 1970s, also on its maiden launch). Fourth, they managed to give much better coverage of the launch than previous attempts. Finally, they got plenty of data with which to figure out what went wrong.

I have seen a number of blogs speculating that the thermal blanket may not have come off the rocket properly, and could be seen in the on-board video flapping wildly after launch. If that turns out to be the cause of the loss of vehicle, then the solution to that problem might be fairly simple (such as removing the thermal blanket with a winch ten seconds prior to launch rather than counting on cables to yank it off during the launch).

Elon Musk has said that he would tolerate three destroyed rockets before re-evaluating the company. It will likely take a few months to figure out the exact cause(s) of the loss of vehicle and gin up a solution, but given what these guys have accomplished so far (with a small workforce, comparatively low costs, and in only three years) I won't be going too far out on a limb to say that I think that they will succeed, and soon. Expect them to launch again in a few months.

Update: Elon Musk (via Kimbal Musk) says that the thermal blanket doesn't appear to have been the problem; instead a fuel leak caused a fire near the top of the main engine. The fire then got into the helium pneumatics, which caused the pressure in the helium system to drop, triggering a safety valve that shut off the engine. As for what went right:
all vehicle systems, including the main engine, thrust vector control, structures, avionics, software, guidance algorithm, etc. were picture perfect. Falcon's trajectory was within 0.2 degrees of nominal during powered flight.

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T minus 40 minutes

T minus 40 minutes

SpaceX is webcasting the launch of the Falcon-1 rocket right now. You can watch the video feed here. So far everything looks good - I wish the best of luck to Elon Musk and all the SpaceX crew. If all goes well, I will be trying to get some screen captures and will post them here after the launch.

Update, 130pm MST: apparently I spoke too soon; the launch is currently 25 minutes into an unplanned countdown hold, as the recovery boat has strayed into an unsafe area. When the boat moves into a safe area the countdown will resume.

Update, 2pm MST: the countdown will resume in 15 minutes, and the launch is expected to occur 1 hour and 15 minutes later (230 pm California time, 330 MST, 530 EST).

Update, 215pm MST: the countdown has resumed.

Update, 330pm MST: LIFTOFF!

Update, 331pm MST: I lost the signal from the webcast, but definitely saw liftoff and a view from the rocket as it ascended. Trying to reacquire webcast now.

Update, 345pm MST: Here are the screen capture pics I managed to get. First, an image of the rocket on its launch pad. For an idea of the scale, note the people to the left of the rocket.


Next, an image showing some of the liquid oxygen venting off:


The tower retracts just prior to launch:


Liftoff!


Kwajalein Atoll receeding as the rocket ascends:


A view of the Pacific just before I lost the webcast signal: update: this is probably a view of the sky rather than the Pacific; by this time the rocket had already gone out of control and was on its way to impact.


Update 355pm MST: DAMMIT DAMMIT DAMMIT
According to Gwynne Shotwell of SpaceX, the vehicle was lost soon after the webcast feed failed. To quote Rand Simberg: Scheisse.


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Thursday, March 23, 2006

megalego

megalego

Is there anything that can't be built with Lego? In this earlier post I showed a Difference Engine made out of Lego; this post from last August showed some amazing creations as well. Since last month I have stumbled upon several more rather impressive Lego creations.

First, here is a Rubik's Cube solver made by JP Brown out of Lego:

He also made a machine that solves the Towers of Hanoi puzzle (for up to 5 Lego "disks"):

Next, a functional desk made by Eric Harshbarger out of about 35 thousand Legos:

From the same builder, how about this working Grandfather Clock:

And now this is truly impressive: a 5 meter long aircraft carrier made by Malle Hawking out of 200 thousand Lego pieces:


There were also some rather impressive Lego creations at TechEBlog, but it looks like they are having some server problems right now and I can't get into their site; if they get that problem fixed later today I will probably post some pics from that site as well.

Update: The TechEBlog is back up. Here is a sample of some of the images there:

Han Solo in suspended animation:


a working harpsichord:


a working pinball machine:


Update: I found this immense Lego creation on Wimp.com, a gigantic Lego stadium (click on the link for more images of this behemoth):


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Tuesday, March 21, 2006

just a couple more days

just a couple more days

Kimbal Musk reports that SpaceX will launch their rocket on March 23rd or 24th at 1pm California time. Good luck guys!

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take a few days off...

take a few days off...

... and the world goes straight to hell. Geez. I checked my RSS feed reader, and there were over four thousand items there. I've only been out of touch for 8 days! Yikes.

I think the next time I have to take time off from blogging I'll have a guest blogger or two to fill in for me.

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Monday, March 20, 2006

thanks

thanks

Thank you to all who sent your sympathies; much appreciated. Regular blogging will resume tomorrow.

Saturday, March 11, 2006

hiatus

hiatus

Obviously, blogging will be light here for the next little while. I'll probably post a little bit here and there, but I don't expect things to be back to normal for a week or two.

bye, Dad

bye, Dad

I just received a phone call from my mom about an hour ago, one call that I certainly did not expect. She called to tell me that my dad died today.

He was only 62. I don't know why he died yet, but apparently it was very sudden. He called my sister this afternoon and told her that he had a bad cold, and asked her to bring her humidifier out to his place. She doesn't live very far away from him, maybe a fifteen minute drive, so bundling up my nephews into the van and driving out there took her all of half an hour, tops. When she got there, he was already gone, looking very peaceful, with no sign that he had faced any sort of struggle or pain.

I loved my dad, but we sure didn't get along while I was growing up. He had his faults, but he tried the best he knew how to raise myself and my sisters properly. He treated people with respect, lived his life honestly, and always tried his best. All in all he was a good man. I'm going to miss him.

I called him on his birthday last month. The last thing we said to each other was "I love you".

Book Review: Return to the Moon, part 1

Book Review: Return to the Moon, part 1

Back in December I started bothering Rick Tumlinson to get me a copy of the book Return to the Moon for review on this blog. At the end of February, the publishers - Apogee Space Books, kindly routed a copy to me. Since the book is a collection of short essays, I had promised Rick that I would review the book essay by essay over numerous blog posts. This is the review of the first essay in the book, by Tumlinson himself, simply entitled The Moon.

If there are any spelling errors in the quotations I give, then these errors are entirely mine, as I am copying from the book rather than cutting/pasting.


Rick Tumlinson is a visionary - one of those guys who sees a direction that mankind ought to be going, who then leaps to the front of the pack and tries to persuade others to follow. As founder of the Space Frontier Foundation, he has long been reaching out to an increasingly interested public, convincing them of the need, or destiny, of mankind to return to the moon to stay.

In the first essay of Return to the Moon, Tumlinson briefly covers the history of Man's first tentative forays onto this new world - and subsequent abandonment of the new frontier for more than thirty years. He then segues into President George W. Bush's January 14th, 2004 announcement of a new direction for the long-rudderless National Aeronautics and Space Administration: the Vision for Space Exploration, which entailed a return to the moon, a journey Mars, and then, to points beyond.

When NASA (and by extension, the United States and the rest of the world) abandoned the moon in the early 70's, they left a vacuum behind - not just a literal vacuum on that airless world, but also a vacuum of leadership in space. And that vacuum is being filled not by governments and gigantic corporations, but by individuals and small businesses around the world:
You see, since the mid-1970s a small but growing movement has been planting the seeds of a revolution in space. A revolution based on people opening space for themselves, by themselves and with their own money, sweat and ingenuity. I call this the space frontier movement, and since the late 1990s it has begun to show itself as a force with ever-growing momentum. They are led by a NewSpace industry of visionary people who are rolling up their sleeves and making it happen. They are inspired by the same dream and the same core goals, expressed in the writings and political actions of their fellow activists, and supported by investors, workers and volunteers who believe. This is a true revolution. It is not just about the Moon, or Mars or any single destination. It is a revolution in the way we not only see humanity, but directs how we should act in relation to our world, our future and indeed our destiny as a species.

From my perspective, the core concepts of this movement are simple. Earth is a cradle of life in a potentially hostile universe. Humanity is the caretaker of that life. It is our job to not only save this world but to do so using the resources of the space around us, and to take life to worlds now dead. To expand the human species and life forms of Earth beyond the limiting confines of this tiny world and out into the universe.

To those in the movement this is not far-out rhetorical and poetic fluff. It is what we are about. It is who we are. It is what we are doing. And now, in the last few years, we have arrived.
Tumlinson goes on to predict that the first commercial orbiting facilities, serviced by commercial spacecraft, will be operational in a five to six year time period.

If Tumlinson is correct in this prediction (and based upon the work being done by Bigelow Aerospace on the likely first such facility, and by SpaceX on the transportation services with their upcoming Falcon 9 booster and Dragon manned capsule, by Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic with their SpaceShip2 program, by the amazing work of Armadillo Aerospace, JP Aerospace, and many others, I tend to think he's going to be right), then commercial interests will beat NASA in developing some major components of the Vision for Space Exploration by several years, and at a fraction of the cost: indeed, they will do so at a profit. And in the process private companies will render NASA redundant:
... at that moment the government program is no longer needed if our goal is the opening of space to humanity. ...Faced with a Presidential challenge to take Americans to the Moon and Mars on a budget, our space agency has predictably chosen to answer what is really an economic or business management question with an engineering solution. NASA could have taken the long view, wherein the leverage of national exploration dollars are used to catalyze an industrial and transportation infrastructure that would both dramatically lower the cost of getting into space, and also allow us to stay and expand our presence over time. Instead, rather than seize the opportunity to be truly creative that is offered by trying to develop a permanent human presence on the Moon and Mars within a tight budget, NASA has combined its worst central design bureau instincts with short-sighted timidity in its goals for its plans when it arrives (if ever) at its destinations.
For the remainder of his essay, Tumlinson states what can be summarized by Albert Einstein's famous quotation:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results.
He offers a solution, however. If the moon can be thought of as the edge of a bubble surrounding the earth, the edge beyond which lies the Far Frontier where human beings have never travelled, then let NASA concentrate on doing those things that extend the limits of the bubble and go beyond the edge. For everything within the bubble, NASA should look to private industry to provide the desired results, and pay only on delivery of those results. This would mark a radical change for NASA: whereas up to now they have paid mega-corporations for effort (through cost-plus accounting which assures a profit to those companies whether results are achieved or not, and which encourages cost overruns - the higher the costs, the higher the guaranteed profit), henceforth they would pay for achievement.

Tumlinson's essay is really a call to arms, imploring the American people to force NASA to change the way it does business: from NASA as the be-all and end-all of American human activity in space, micromanaged to the last detail at a cost of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, to instead being a partner and customer of private industry, expanding the bubble of human presence beyond low earth orbit (at a profit!) - this time, to stay.

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monster sudoku (060311)

monster sudoku (060311)

I hope you're having a nice, relaxing weekend. Here's something to help pass the time, yet another monster 16x16 sudoku.

The rules of Monster Sudoku: The puzzle board consists of a 16 by 16 grid, which is further divided up into sixteen 4 by 4 blocks. In each row, column, and 4x4 block, the letters A through P each get written exactly once. There is only one solution. If the letters are a little too small for you, click on the image to bring up a large version. For those who need help, a short tutorial on how to solve sudoku puzzles can be found here.

To solve this puzzle, I suggest first saving the GIF on your computer. Then print it out (or copy it out on graph paper) and solve it in pencil (or in pen if you're feeling bold). If you don't feel like using paper, then solve it using a graphics editor such as Microsoft Paint.

If you solve this puzzle, post your solution in the comments. The first person who posts the correct solution wins a prize: a permalink on my blogroll and a graphic declaring him or her to be the Monster Sudoku Champion, which can be displayed on their own blog. I will post the solution next Saturday if nobody else gets it by then.

If you want to play the regular 9 x 9 sudoku puzzle, just scroll down; there is a sudoku puzzle just before the cartoons, which you can play right on this blog.

Update: the solution is available here.

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Thursday, March 09, 2006

Sudoku Galore

Sudoku Galore

Anyone who has read my blog since late October knows that I am somewhat of a Sudoku fanatic. Apparently I'm not the only one, as sudoku games appear in more than 100 newspapers worldwide. Now, perhaps because I have posted so many sudokus and monster 16 x 16 sudokus on my blog, I find that many other people are sending me links to their sudoku games. These games come in three varieties.

First, there is the sudoku game which you can download to your computer and play while offline; check out Mark Klocek's (free) Pure Sudoku, or if you are willing to spend some money on a similar program you can get one from Sudoku.com.

Next, there are the sudoku games that you can add to your blog or website. Vulkanino showed me Logicando.net's version in a comment back in February. The version I publish on this blog is available at SudokuPuzz.com. I found Free Sudoku via Grilles de Sudoku; besides the regular sudokus (with 3x3 regions arranged in a 3x3 grid, for a total of a 9x9 grid), this one also has versions with 3x2 and 3x4 regions.

Finally, there are the type that you can play online; these include the ones listed in the paragraph above, but the following are not available to add to your own blog or website. Check out Sudoku Hints (which also allows you to input a sudoku from another source) and Websudoku. For a twist, try Sopranos Sudoku, which uses pictures of characters from the hit HBO series rather than numbers. And finally, Steven Van Vaerenbergh's Squobble adds an extra dimension to regular sudoku, as all the numbers have colours, each of which appears only once in every row, column and 3x3 region.

One more site I should mention: if you want to create your own sudokus (or if you're just a cheatypants and want to solve them without any effort), then check out SourceForge's Sudoku Solver.

Now, it turns out that rather than being merely a pleasant diversion, there is actually a practical application to sudoku - or more accurately, there is a practical application that turns out to also solve sudoku:
Cornell physicist Veit Elser has been engrossed recently in resolving a pivotal question in biological imaging. So he hasn't had much time for brainteasers and number games.

But in discovering an algorithm critical for X-ray diffraction microscopy, Elser and colleagues solved two problems. First, they gave researchers a new tool for imaging the tiniest and most delicate of biological specimens. And second, they discovered that the same algorithm also solves the internationally popular numbers puzzle Sudoku.

Not just one puzzle. All of them.

...The so-called difference-map algorithm, which Elser says could have applications from productivity optimization to nanofabrication, tackles problems for which the solution must meet two independent constraints. In the case of Sudoku, the constraints are simple: Each of nine numbers, considered alone, appears nine times in the grid so that there is only one per row and column. And all nine numbers appear within each of the nine blocks.

In X-ray diffraction microscopy, the constraints are more complex. But the beauty of the algorithm, as Elser demonstrates, is that complexity doesn't matter. By applying the algorithm to the jumble of raw data from such an experiment, researchers can now reconstruct from it a clear, detailed image.
The page with the X-ray diffraction microscopy also includes a ginormous 25x25 sudoku; I downloaded the image of that, cleaned it up, and posted it above right. Click on the image for a larger version, and enjoy. (Kiraly, I told you I was going to put a 25x25 behemoth up here one day!)

Update: When I copied the huge sudoku from the Science Daily column, some of the letters in the puzzle weren't very clear, and I made a mistake; the 17th row had two M's and no H's. That problem is fixed now.

Update 2: Hold yer horses! After Kiraly pointed out one error that I had made in my transcription, I decided to see if there were more; sure enough, there were. I had missed one letter altogether, and had a couple more incorrect: in the original image it is very difficult to tell the difference between the letters H, M, and N. The corrected version (for sure this time) of the ginormous sudoku is now posted above, but even now I am not certain whether the letter in the first row and tenth column is an H or an M.

HOWEVER: It doesn't matter what letter goes in that disputed spot. Either way, according to SourceForge's Sudoku Solver there is no solution to this sudoku, contrary to the assertion in the Science Daily article that the solution will spell out the name of one of Cornell University's founders.

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now that's hot

now that's hot

Sandia labs has achieved a temperature of 2 BILLION degrees Kelvin in their Z Machine. This is the highest temperature ever achieved in the lab, and is more than 100 times the temperature at the core of the sun.

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Property and Sovereignty in Space

Property and Sovereignty in Space

Jeff Foust reviewed the book Unreal Estate: The Men Who Sold The Moon by Virgiliu Pop last week in an article in The Space Review:
While most of Unreal Estate is a historical examination of the various claims of extraterrestrial property rights claims, Pop does devote a final chapter to the legality of such claims. While such claims are a “trivial issue” for space law experts, who don’t give them a second thought, the same is not true for the general public: “The issue has hijacked the public perception of the space law.” So Pop spends several pages deconstructing the Lunar Embassy’s claims in particular, using several lines of argument: that others filed claims to ownership of the Moon prior to Hope, that government recognition of such claims in general would be in conflict with the Outer Space Treaty, and that those who make such claims lack the physical ability to take possession of their property.
Let's take Pop's arguments against the claiming of extraterrestrial property slightly out of order.

OK, so the governments which signed the Outer Space Treaty cannot recognize those claims without violating the Treaty. However, not all governments signed the Outer Space Treaty, and just as Liberia and the Bahamas are flags of convenience for many shippers (hello, Canadian ex-Prime Minister Paul Martin), there will be flags of convenience for claimants of extraterrestrial property as well. Liberia didn't sign the treaty; Palau didn't sign it; Tuvalu didn't sign it; Vanuatu didn't sign it; England hasn't signed the treaty (nor has their independent protectorate, the Isle of Man, which is already very friendly to space companies) (Update: Jesse Londin informed me that England did sign the treaty, and I now see that she is correct - I had looked under the names "England" and "Great Britain" but neglected to check "United Kingdom" - however, the argument still stands even though England signed the treaty.) - only 91 countries have signed the treaty, of which only 62 have ratified it, and in addition another 36 countries have acceded to it. That leaves a lot of countries which haven't ratified or acceded to the Outer Space Treaty - out of 191 UN member nations, 93 have neither ratified nor acceded to the Outer Space Treaty. That's one hell of a lot of leeway, plenty of countries who could recognize such claims without violating the Outer Space Treaty. If a space company has to incorporate themselves in the Isle of Man in order to claim asteroid 3554 Amun (and in the process earn 20 Trillion dollars), then they'll do so.

Pop's third argument - the idea that those who make such claims lack the physical ability to take possession of their property - negates Pop's first argument, that others had filed claims of ownership before. If they had filed such claims with nations which were not signatories to the Outer Space Treaty, they still haven't taken physical possession of the property. Pop's third argument renders his first specious.

Further to Pop's third argument, just because nobody has taken physical possession of these properties yet doesn't mean that it will not happen. Every year, private space companies become more and more capable. It was less than two years ago that Scaled Composites won the X-prize with two suborbital flights in the space of two weeks in the same spacecraft, and just this week SpaceX has announced that they will be building a 7-passenger orbital craft. Other companies are becoming more and more active in space; there are currently 68 small businesses in my Space Business list in the sidebar, with more being added every few weeks. If even only a couple of these businesses are successful, then that means that private companies in general will have access to space and to extraterrestrial resources.

And with private businesses reaching space it is only a matter of time before they reach the moon and/or near-earth asteroids and take physical possession of extraterrestrial property, with their claims recognized by nations that are not signatories to the Outer Space Treaty.

The obvious primary activity of these businesses on the moon or near-earth asteroids is going to be mining. Whether looking for Helium-3 on the moon or platinum-group metals on the moon or asteroids, space mining is going to be huge business. If only 1% of the (so far) known near-earth asteroids are similar to 3554 Amun, then that 1% represents 800 Trillion dollars worth of material - equivalent to 16 times the entire earth's annual economic output. Thar's gold in them thar hills.

However, if there are mines, and if there are people manning those mines, then there will be lots of people who are doing things besides mining. If large-scale mining is occurring, then there will obviously be a habitat for the workforce. That habitat would need to have it's internal atmosphere constantly refreshed so that CO2 levels wouldn't build up and so there would be enough oxygen for everyone to breathe. Therefore there would be lots of plant life, much of which would also be grown for food for the population. There would likely be animals like chickens and tilapia and nubian goats and rabbits, to provide balance for the human population's diet. This implies farmers, cooks, and water management and waste management technicians. There would need to be maintenance people who would repair damage to the habitat, repair spacesuits and equipment, and so on. If the habitat exists with a fairly large population for an extended period of time, then there will need to be doctors and nurses ... and there will be children born. With children comes the need for teachers. The number of occupations goes on and on. In short, a sufficiently-large mining operation would become a de facto space colony.

And many space colonies, each largely self-sufficient by necessity and earning as much money through mining as a major nation on earth, would likely become independent sovereign entities themselves - that is, nations. Dan Schrimpsher of Space Pragmatism touched on this issue in December 2005:
Over the past few months, I have read more than a few novels on Moon colonies. Most notably, Ben Bova’s Moonwar and Robert Heinlein’s The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. In these, and most other [such] novels, the lunar citizens are forced to declare independence and fight a war for their freedom.

...I have found myself asking, what makes a country sovereign?

Is it simply the will to declare as a collective the will to determine your own destiny? Or is it the point at which other countries recognize your sovereignty? At worst it is when the primary opponent of your independence gives in.
and in January 2006:
Certainly it is possible for a lunar colony to remain an outpost of a company or government with temporary residents holding earth bound concerns. But is that practical on Mars? How about further out moons or asteroids? At some point the people of a colony will be so far out and intertwined with their environment that the connection with their Earthly concerns will loosen and break.

I would guess this is true of most colonists who move their lives to a new land. This is especially for the generations born in that new land. So I say that extraterrestrial sovereignty is a foregone conclusion, at least eventually.

...My purpose in thinking about this, as always, goes back to the Outer Space Treaty. If a colony declares its independence to the world, are they bound by that treaty? More importantly, can nations on Earth recognize their independence without violating that treaty? I am sure many countries and corporations with no presence on said colony would gladly support [their] separation. So is a declared sovereign nation, who has never signed the Outer Space Treaty, bound by it or do they have to win a battle with the world first?
I, too, think that if private businesses are successful in attaining space and making claims on extraterrestrial property and actually working the land, then an independent space colony/nation is inevitable; if one such colony is started there will undoubtedly be many to follow; and thus, there will be many such nations in space, each independent from earthly governments. Oh, sure, there will be some squawking from Outer Space Treaty signatory nations, and perhaps even embargoes on space colonies early in their independence - but let's ask Saddam Hussein just how effective embargoes are. And, I don't think that anyone is about to go to war with (for instance) England (see update above) over its recognition of the property rights of settlers in a space colony or its recognition of the independence of that colony - certainly the USA will not go to war with England over this (and thus risk tearing NATO asunder), nor will any non-NATO nation wish to incur the wrath of the combined might of NATO by attacking England. Heck, England might even be willing to admit such a colony to membership in the British Commonwealth, and regain its "the sun never sets over the British Empire" prestige, while simultaneously attaining the ultimate high ground in any war.

In short, if any private companies succeed in space, then the mooting of the Outer Space Treaty and the development of independent, sovereign nations in outer space, is inevitable.

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Sunday, March 05, 2006

Now that's cold

Now that's cold

I have a bunch of friends in warm climates due to Yahoo messenger. Sometimes I hear them complaining that it's cold outside, when the temperatures get below +10C (around 50 Farenheit for y'all Americans).

That ain't cold. The video below shows real cold; watch what happens when this guy throws a pot of boiling water into the air at minus 40 (C or F, take your pick) in Saskatchewan, Canada.



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Saturday, March 04, 2006

monster sudoku (060304)

monster sudoku (060304)

Well, here we go again, another edition of the Saturday Monster Sudoku. I've been spending several hours today fiddling around with Excel, trying to make a faster way of putting these puzzles together, and I think I've finally got it worked out so that it will only take me a half hour or so to create a Monster Sudoku (rather than the four hours it used to take). Enjoy!

The rules of Monster Sudoku: The puzzle board consists of a 16 by 16 grid, which is further divided up into sixteen 4 by 4 blocks. In each row, column, and 4x4 block, the letters A through P each get written exactly once. There is only one solution. If the letters are a little too small for you, click on the image to bring up a large version. For those who need help, a short tutorial on how to solve sudoku puzzles can be found here.

To solve this puzzle, I suggest first saving the GIF on your computer. Then print it out (or copy it out on graph paper) and solve it in pencil (or in pen if you're feeling bold). If you don't feel like using paper, then solve it using a graphics editor such as Microsoft Paint.

If you solve this puzzle, post your solution in the comments. The first person who posts the correct solution wins a prize: a permalink on my blogroll and a graphic declaring him or her to be the Monster Sudoku Champion, which can be displayed on their own blog. I will post the solution next Saturday if nobody else gets it by then.

If you want to play the regular 9 x 9 sudoku puzzle, just scroll down; there is a sudoku puzzle just before the cartoons, which you can play right on this blog.

Update: Kiraly solves another one! The correct solution is posted in the comments. Kiraly, if you have a website, feel free to post this graphic:

Update: an easier-to-read version of the solution is available here.

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Dawn's demise

Dawn's demise

I wasn't going to post anything much about the Dawn mission cancellation. There has already been plenty of reaction from other space bloggers about it. That is, I wan't going to say too much about it until I saw this at the Planetary Society blog, where Dawn Co-Investigator Mark Sykes was whining about the demise of the Dawn mission:
"Yeah, well, but basically I've been hearing nothing but negative things out of [NASA] headquarters about this mission for years, and so when they did the stand down thing it seemed clear to me that there was a desire to cancel the mission."

Mark continued, "Here we were eight months out from launch, and they not only stood us down for three months but they forced a reduction in personnel at JPL and Orbital Sciences Corporation by more than two thirds." Orbital is the chief contractor building Dawn. Why the stand down? "They were really angry about cost overruns, tens of millions of dollars." The original budget was $373 million, and the mission had requested another 40.
Now, it isn't obvious whether the Planetary Society's Emily Lakdawalla got that $373 million figure from Sykes or whether she got it from another source. The thing is, that number is totally wrong.
Sure, the Dawn mission might have already cost $373 million, but that was not the original budget. According to the Discovery missions page on NASA's website:
The cost for the entire mission (design, development, launch vehicle, instruments, spacecraft, launch, mission operations, and data analysis) must be less than $299 million. The development time from mission start to launch can be no more than 36 months.
(emphasis mine)(screenshot)

So, they already went 74 million dollars (25 percent!) over budget and were asking for another 40 million dollars, and were already several years overdue.

If Mark Sykes and Dawn Principal Investigator Chris Russell were in the private sector, they would be facing jail time for fraud. At the very least they would both certainly be fired along with everyone else in charge of the Dawn mission.

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Thursday, March 02, 2006

Billions and Billions

Billions and Billions

... of dollars, that is. CNN's Money page talks about one of the possibile ways to make money on space: mining the asteroids.
Ever heard of 3554 Amun? It's a space rock about 2 kilometers in diameter that looks as if it might have fallen straight out of The Little Prince. There are three key things to know about 3554 Amun: First, its orbit crosses that of Earth; second, it's the smallest M-class (metal-bearing) asteroid yet discovered; and finally, it contains (at today's prices) roughly $8 trillion worth of iron and nickel, $6 trillion of cobalt, and $6 trillion of platinumlike metals. In other words, whoever owns Amun could become 450 times as wealthy as Bill Gates.
Nearly 4000 near-earth asteroids have been catalogued so far.

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